Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Potash (POT): Long-term growth in fertilizers

"Investing in the fertilizer business may not sound sexy, but the dynamics and fundamentals of the food business will turn it into one of the most profitable sectors you could find.," explains global expert Tony Sagami.

In his The Asia Stock Alert he suggests, "Every farmer needs to use fertilizer -- and the most used and most important fertilizer is potash. And Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is set to make a bundle supplying potash to the world."

"There are approximately 6.6 billion people on our planet today, but that number is expected to grow to 8.2 billion by 2030. That's a lot of mouths to feed. Plus, the amount of food each mouth is eating is also increasing.

" The world's population isn't the only thing that's growing. So are incomes in most parts of the world, especially China. What's the first thing you would buy if your income went from subsistence to middle class? A Mercedes? A Rolex? Probably not. For most people, it's better food ... and more of it.

"And that's exactly what's happening in China. The country's rising income is causing a dramatic change in Chinese eating habits. Since 1980, per-capita meat consumption in China has nearly tripled. In short, the wealthier a nation becomes, the more calories its citizens consume - and that translates into more fertilizer demand to produce all that food.

"China's agriculture technology is also far behind that of the U.S. - and one of the keys to improving its agricultural productivity is to use more fertilizer. That's because potash helps Chinese farmers grow more and better food ... which, in turn, makes it possible to supply more food to Chinese consumers.

"China is the largest consumer of potash in the world. And Postash Corp. is by far the world's largest potash producer. The company currently gets 12% of its sales from China, but here too, that number is going to grow, grow, grow.

"Recently, the company agreed to sell potash to India for $460 a ton. Now, that bothered the Wall Street crowd because it is 26% below last year's price. But what they don't understand is that it's still 40% higher than early 2007 prices.

"In fact, last year saw the price of potash peak at $650 a ton. But I can easily see prices rebounding to new highs in the next 12 to 18 months, and ultimately surpassing $1,000 a ton within five years. When that happens, the company's profits will skyrocket."

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